Numerical weather and climate predictions are based on the same physical principles and thus use the same class of numerical models to simulate the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. However, the two problems are often considered separately, be it by separate communities of scientists, institutions or models. My research aims at bringing weather and climate predictions closer together, identifying synergies and exploring ways to augment the values of both.
Past and ongoing research projects in my group have studied aspect of the “seamless” prediction concept, e.g. how climate variability affects our ability to forecast weather, forecast-based attribution to anthropogenic climate change of extreme weather events, user-oriented climate information systems across timescales, and representations and quantification of model uncertainties across time scales. The methodologies we utilise to study these questions include numerical experiments with the forecast models from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), data from international climate modelling activities, statistics and intensive data-driven methods to analyse observations and simulations.
